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- Overview -
The
Horizons Project emerged from the observation that as the first species
aware of extinction and long-term development challenges, and capable
of proactively addressing such threats and challenges, we do not do
so with the rigor and foresight we are capable of.
Only
from a reactive posture have we responded with organizations such as
the United Nations to address global warfare, human rights, environmental
concerns, and sustainable development. Despite our awareness of the
possibility for extinction and catastrophic setbacks to civilization, proactive global policy implementation regarding our long-term
survival and development is severely lacking.
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Long-term implies roughly 25 years and beyond.
- Challenges
are extinction and global catastrophic threats as well as critical
long-term issues that could dramatically affect the long-term development
of humankind.
- Challenges
can be further characterized as those that directly affect a large
proportion of the human population or that require a large amount
of resources and/or international cooperation.
Survival
and catastrophic threats might be:
- asteroid
impact event (present efforts are not good enough)
- abrupt
climate change
- space-based warfare
- magnetic
pole reversal
- technology
runaway (e.g. genetic engineering, Artificial Life, AI)
- significant
life-span increase
- biological
"surprises" (e.g. prions)
- pandemic
events (e.g. AIDS crisis in Africa)
- "emergent
trauma" (e.g. massive systemic technology breakdown)
- presently
unknown threats (e.g. threats from space)
Critical
long-term challenges might be:
- preventing
an arms race in space
- Humanity's
future in space
- global
governance – more? less? better? how?
- global
wealth gap
- search for extraterrestrial
intelligence
- genetic
engineering, "directed speciation"
- role
of religion, agnosticism, atheism
- enhancing
the role of technology, especially the internet, in democracy and
innovative education
Why
do we have this shortcoming?
- Political
will and capacity to rigorously address long-term challenges is very
limited and generally ineffective due to lack of time and commitment. Understandably,
near-term issues dominate, making it difficult for policy makers to
focus on the long-term.
- Autonomous/sovereign
Nation-State paradigm allows nations to pursue self interest despite
broader global long-range implications.
- Political
and socio-economic structures are generally short-term oriented.
- Human
psychology and behavior is generally short-term oriented.
- Addressing
long-term issues is very difficult and can have uncertain payoff.
Recommendation
Conduct a feasibility study assessing how best to address long-term
challenges.
There
are certainly some efforts that attempt to address longer-range challenges,
but those efforts often do not sufficiently connect to effective implementation,
do not extend several decades or more into the future, are not well-funded
and are not sufficiently systemic. Better international mechanisms for
directly addressing long-range challenges could correct these shortcomings
by raising awareness, providing funding, and leveraging rigor and decision-making
to help insure longer-term commitments.
International mechanisms addressing long-range issues will involve many
challenges and stakeholders with many different perspectives, and because
it is unclear what the optimal approaches are, we believe it is important
to first conduct an in-depth feasibility
study to:
- Assess
the need and shortcomings
- Study
the factors and options to address those needs and shortcomings
- Produce
and prioritize recommendations and strategies
- Act
a means of guidance for going forward
Home Feasibility
Study Raising
Awareness Contact
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